Paris, 15 June 2010 – Speaking before the European Security and Defence Assembly on Tuesday, Mrs Josette DURRIEU (France, Socialist Group) called for “caution and vigilance” in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue.

Mrs DURRIEU, who has just returned from a mission to Iran, presented an information report on Iran on behalf of the Assembly’s Political Committee in which she calls for a proper understanding of the “operational nuclear reality of the Iranian bomb”. She warns against excessively strict sanctions and military strikes which would be counterproductive.

According to the French Senator, Iran could, by late 2010, have at most “a single nuclear device, which would not have been tested, and whose suitability for use with a ballistic missile would not have been demonstrated”. A second device would only be possible by the end of 2011 and “a full dissuasive arsenal by around 2015”.

Recalling that the Iranian regime was “pursuing authoritarian, repressive and nuclear policies, following the June 2009 elections which maintained President Ahmadinejad in power as the result of widespread fraud”, Mrs DURRIEU underlined that the regime “as is the case with most dictatorships, needs external crises to escape its internal problems”. With the support of the Supreme Leader of the revolution, Ali Kamenei, “the iron first of the Pasdaran and a clientelist network he carefully maintains”, Ahmadinejad “will provoke attacks and be able to exploit them to reunite a proud population willing to defend its country even if they condemn the regime. Western countries must avoid the Iraqi-style process which appears imminent” warned Mrs DURRIEU.

In the face of the legitimate fears aroused by the prospect of a nuclear Iran in the short or medium term, “the economic sanctions voted on five occasions by the Security Council have remained relatively mild and have not yet had any effect on the behaviour of the country’s leaders” Mrs DURRIEU pointed out, adding that “embargos tend to penalise populations, but do not dislodge regimes”. Sometimes they strengthened them, she said. If the Iranian regime were to fall, it would be from the inside.

Furthermore, Mrs DURRIEU considers that it might be “difficult to say that Iran has no ‘rights’ when Israel, India and Pakistan have an operational nuclear arsenal”. In her opinion, it is necessary to persevere on the path towards “a global peace agreement and complete denuclearisation of the region”.